PERENCANAAN PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN VOLUME PENJUALAN SEMEN DI PABRIK SEMEN PANDEGLANG

MARLINA, WINNY ALNA (2017) PERENCANAAN PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN VOLUME PENJUALAN SEMEN DI PABRIK SEMEN PANDEGLANG. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.

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Abstract

Forecasting is essential for factories to gain competitive advantages. Forecasting is estimates of values at certain specific future times. Forecasting helps in reducing inventory and to schedule customers’ orders. Accurate sales forecasting is very helpful in planning of plant procurement and for cutting the cost. But a new cement established factory in Indonesia has a forecast based on sales targeted from owners. This inaccurate forecasting then following by production department to produce quantity of cement. In this case inventory of cement was effected to out of stock or over stocked. In this paper, forecasting methods using time series such linear method, exponential smoothing, moving average. Forecasting based on historical data then the suggestion forecasting model will be implemented to this factory. Using Mean Absolut Deviation (MAD) to estimate the error of forecasting. The result show that moving average methods were more accurate concrete to other. With moving average methods, cement demand for next period can be estimated on ward become more effective and efficient. Key Word : MAD, Sales Forecasting, moving average method, time series Peramalan sangat penting bagi setiap perusahaan untuk meningkatkan keuntungan. Peramalan adalah memprekiraan nilai tertentu di masa yang akan datang. Kegunaan dari peramalan untuk mengurangi persediaan dan menjadwalan permintaan pelanggan. Ketepatan peramalan penjualan sangat berguna bagi procuremen dan memangkas biaya. Tapi sebuah perusahaan semen baru di Indonesia memiliki peramalan berdasarkan target yang ditetapkan oleh Pemilik Perusahaan. Ketidaktepatan peramalan kemudian diikuti oleh Departemen Produksi dalam memproduksi jumlah semen sehingga menyebabkan kekurangan dan kelebihan persediaan. Dalam hal penelitian ini metode peramalan yang digunakan dengan metode time series seperti Metode linear, exponential smoothing dan moving average. Peramalan berdasarkan data lalu kemudian diperoleh data yang sesuai yang bisa diterapkan dalan perusahaan. Menggunakan Mean Absolut Deviation (MAD) untuk menghitung kesalahan peramalan. Hasilnya adalah metode Moving average merupajan metode yang akurat dibandingkan yang lain. Dengan metode moving average permintaan semen untuk periode berikutnya dalan diperkirakan and lebih efektif dan efisien. Key Word : MAD, Sales Forecasting, moving average method, time series

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