PEMILIHAN METODE PERAMALAN PADA PRODUK PERLENGKAPAN BAYI UNTUK KETEPATAN PENJUALAN (Studi Kasus Pada PT ABPI Cabang Jakarta)

IRMA, IRMA (2025) PEMILIHAN METODE PERAMALAN PADA PRODUK PERLENGKAPAN BAYI UNTUK KETEPATAN PENJUALAN (Studi Kasus Pada PT ABPI Cabang Jakarta). S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.

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Abstract

Rapid business growth faces the main challenge of adjusting production to fluctuating market demand. The mismatch between production volume and demand can cause various problems, such as overproduction resulting in waste of resources, underproduction causing the inability to meet market demand on time. This study aims to determine the most accurate forecasting method for the NSP1006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 240 ml, NSP-3006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 50 ml, 3-2103-Mh Bottle 3 Function 150 cc, TS-3S Accessories 3-tier milk container, and F-338 Baby Training Cup 3 in 1 Accessories. The research method uses descriptive quantitative. The analysis method used is naive approach, simple moving average, linear regression, simple exponential smoothing. The accuracy benchmark uses Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Data collection techniques use primary data and secondary data. The results of the study show that the NSP-1006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 240 ml has an accurate forecasting method which is the linear regression method, the NSP-3006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 50 ml has an accurate forecasting method which is the linear regression method, the 3-2103-Mh Bottle 3 Function 150 cc has an accurate forecasting method which is the naive method, the TS-3S 3-tier milk container accessories have an accurate forecasting method which is the naive method, and the F-338 Baby Training Cup 3 in 1 accessories have an accurate forecasting method which is the linear regression method. Keywords: Forecasting, Sales, Accuracy benchmark, Naive approach, Simple Moving Average, Linear Regression, Simple Exponential Smoothing. Pertumbuhan bisnis yang pesat mengalami tantangan utama yang dihadapi yaitu penyesuaian produksi dengan permintaan pasar yang fluktuatif. Ketidaksesuaian antara jumlah produksi dan permintaan dapat menimbulkan berbagai masalah, seperti overproduksi yang mengakibatkan pemborosan sumber daya, underproduksi yang menyebabkan ketidakmampuan memenuhi permintaan pasar tepat waktu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui metode peramalan yang paling akurat untuk produk Botol NSP-1006 Sumo Round Bpa Free 240 ml, Botol NSP-3006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 50 ml, Botol 3-2103-Mh Btl 3 Funct 150 cc, Aksesoris TS-3S tempat susu 3 susun, dan Aksesoris F-338 Baby Training Cup 3 in 1. Metode penelitian menggunakan kuantitatif deskriptif. Metode analisis yang digunakan naive approach, simple moving average, linear regression, simple exponential smoothing. Tolak ukur akurasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan data primer dan data sekunder. Hasil penelitian menunjukan Botol NSP-1006 Sumo Round Bpa Free 240 ml memiliki metode peramalan yang akurat adalah metode regresi linier, Botol NSP-3006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 50 ml memiliki metode peramalan yang akurat adalah metode regresi linier, Botol 3-2103-Mh Btl 3 Funct 150 cc memiliki metode peramalan yang akurat adalah metode naïve, Aksesoris TS-3S tempat susu 3 susun memiliki metode peramalan yang akurat adalah metode naïve, dan Aksesoris F-338 Baby Training Cup 3 in 1 memiliki metode peramalan yang akurat adalah metode regresi linier. Kata kunci: Peramalan, Penjualan, Tolak ukur akurasi, Naive approach, Simple Moving Average, Linear Regression, Simple Exponential Smoothing

Item Type: Thesis (S1)
Call Number CD: FE/MJ. 25 278
NIM/NIDN Creators: 43119110034
Uncontrolled Keywords: Peramalan, Penjualan, Tolak ukur akurasi, Naive approach, Simple Moving Average, Linear Regression, Simple Exponential Smoothing
Subjects: 000 Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 020 Library and Information Sciences/Perpustakaan dan Ilmu Informasi > 025 Operations, Archives, Information Centers/Operasional Perpustakaan, Arsip dan Pusat Informasi, Pelayanan dan Pengelolaan Perpustakaan > 025.1 Administration and Library Management/Administrasi dan Manajemen Perpustakaan > 025.11 Finance/Keuangan
600 Technology/Teknologi > 630 Agriculture and Related Technologies/Pertanian dan Teknologi Terkait > 637 Processing Dairy and Related Products/Pengolahan Produk Susu dan Produk Terkait > 637.1 Milk Processing/Produksi Susu
600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum > 658.3 Personnel Management/Manajemen Personalia, Manajemen Sumber Daya Manusia, Manajemen SDM
600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum > 658.5 Management of Production/Manajemen Produksi
600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum > 658.8 Marketing, Management of Distribution/Marketing, Manajemen Distribusi
Divisions: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Manajemen
Depositing User: khalimah
Date Deposited: 16 Sep 2025 07:02
Last Modified: 16 Sep 2025 07:02
URI: http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/97941

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