SAPUTRA, MULKI DWI (2024) DEMAND FORECASTING AUTOMATED EXTERNAL DEFIBRILATOR (AED) DI PT. ZOLL MEDICAL INDONESIA. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
Demand Forecasting Automated External Defibrillator (AED) is a research activity that aims to obtain predictive value in the future and the past. The research method was prepared using quantitative methods because the samples collected for processing were monthly time series. The data processing used is moving average, line trend, and exponential smoothing and 3 forecast validation measurements with Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squere Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The research processing resulted in the best data method, namely the linear trend method with a correction value from forecasting data with a year's history for each distributor of (0) and the best validation value for distributor 4, where the distributor's value had a value of 0.5 MAD, 2.1 MSE, and 19.4% MAPE. Forecasting using the linear trend method can produce long-term forecasts up to period 22, with the highest forecast value produced by distributor 4 in period 22 or in January 2024 with a total of 16 units. For the least forecasting results shown in Figure 4.16, namely distributor 1 in period 13 or April 2023 with a total of 6 units. Keywords: AED, MAD, MSE, MAPE Demand Forecasting Automated External Defibrilator (AED) adalah suatu kegiatan penelitian yang bertujuan untuk mendapatkan nilai prediktif pada waktu yang akan datang dan masa lampau. Metode penelitian yang disusun dengan menggunakan metode kuantitatif dikarenakan sampel yang dikumpulkan untuk diolah ialah deretan waktu perbulan. Pengolahan data yang digunakan yaitu moving average, line trend, dan eksponensial smoothing dan 3 pengukuran validasi peramalan dengan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squere Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Pengolahan penelitian tersebut menghasilkan data metode yang terbaik adalah metode trend linear dengan nilai koreksi dari data peramalan dengan histori selama setahun setiap distributor sebesar (0) dan nilai validasi terbaik pada distributor 4 yang dimana nilai distributor tersebut memiliki nilai 0,5 MAD, 2,1 MSE, dan 19,4% MAPE Pada peramalan dengan metode trend linear dapat menghasilkan peramalan jangka panjang sampai periode 22, dengan nilai peramalan tertinggi di hasilkan oleh distributor 4 pada periode 22 atau pada bulan januari 2024 dengan jumlah 16 unit. Untuk hasil peramalan paling sedikit yang ditunjukan pada gambar 4.16 yaitu distributor 1 pada periode 13 atau bulan april 2023 dengan jumlah 6 unit. Kata Kunci: AED, MAD, MSE, MAPE
| Item Type: | Thesis (S2) |
|---|---|
| Call Number CD: | CD/551. 24 040 |
| Call Number: | TM/51/24/039 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 55121120024 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | AED, MAD, MSE, MAPE |
| Subjects: | 000 Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 000. Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 003 Systems/Sistem-sistem > 003.2 Forecasting and Forecast, Futurology/Peramal dan Ramalan, Futurologi 600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum > 658.3 Personnel Management/Manajemen Personalia, Manajemen Sumber Daya Manusia, Manajemen SDM |
| Divisions: | Pascasarjana > Magister Manajemen |
| Depositing User: | khalimah |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Mar 2024 09:13 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Mar 2024 09:13 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/87237 |
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