MARSONO, JAROT (2017) ANALISIS FORECASTING SALES ORDER PRODUK CHICKEN NUGGET SEBAGAI ESTIMASI PRODUKSI PADA PT BELFOODS INDONESIA. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze product demand forecasting Favorite Chicken Nugget and Royal of packaging 500 grams as the basis of the estimated production in PT Belfoods Indonesia. The research data is monthly data product Belfoods Favorite Chicken Nugget and Royal 500 grams for a period of one year (January 2016 - December 2016). Forecasting model used in this study is the Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing - Brown, Double Exponential Smoothing – Holt, and Triple Exponential Smoothing - Brown. The results showed a pattern of data sales order that occurred in 2016 is a pattern of trend data for products CN Favorite and CN Royal 500 grams, forecasting method chosen by MAD and MAPE smallest and Tracking Signal controlled is a method of forecasting Double Exponential Smoothing - Holt ( α = 0.9 and γ = 0.1) for products CN Favorite 500 grams and (α = 0.9 and γ = 0.1) for products CN Royal, the result of forecasting demand for products CN Favorite and CN Royal 500 grams in 2017 showed an increasing trend in linear. Keywords: MAD, MAPE, Tracking Signal, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa peramalan permintaan produk Chicken Nugget Favourite dan Royal kemasan 500 gram sebagai dasar estimasi produksi di PT Belfoods Indonesia. Data penelitian merupakan data bulanan produk Belfoods Chicken Nugget Favourite dan Royal 500 gram untuk periode 1 tahun (Januari 2016 – Desember 2016). Metode peramalan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing – Brown, Double Exponential Smoothing – Holt, dan Triple Exponential Smoothing – Brown. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan, pola data sales order yang terjadi pada tahun 2016 merupakan pola data trend untuk produk CN Favourite dan CN Royal 500 gram, metode peramalan yang terpilih berdasarkan MAD dan MAPE terkecil serta Tracking Signal yang terkendali adalah metode peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing - Holt (α = 0.9 & γ = 0.1) untuk produk CN Favourite 500 gram dan (α = 0.9 & γ = 0.1) untuk produk CN Royal, hasil peramalan permintaan produk CN Favourite dan CN Royal 500 gram pada tahun 2017 menunjukkan adanya suatu trend yang meningkat secara linier. Kata kunci: MAD, MAPE, Tracking Signal, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing
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