ST, Aris Purwanto (2015) Analisis peramalan penjualan dan pengendalian persediaan studi kasus: distribusi farmasi. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana.
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Abstract
Janssens Legacy is a pharmacy product import division, from America, which is distributed by PPG. Import product should have a better sales forecasting, considering that import poduct has a lead time 1,5 until 2 month to arrive in Indonesian market.The objective of this research is to find the best method for common sales forecasting model of time series and then to find the 2015 forecasting. Base on the objective, this research trial the AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA method to the monthly sales data of Janssen Legacy Product from January 2011 until December 2013. The acuracy measurement for this forecasting is comparing from error value of MSE, MAE, MAPE and AIC. The result of this research said that forecasting method of ARMA (1,1) Motilium 10 mg Tab product has a better accuracy compared with the other method. Forecasting for the coming year of Motilium 10 mg Tab product more effective and efficient, and the cost efficiency is significant. Key Words : FORECASTING, ARMA, SAFETY STOCK, REORDER POINT Janssen Legacy merupakan divisi produk farmasi impor asal Amerika yang di distribusikan oleh PPG. Produk impor memerlukan perencanaan yang lebih baik dalam melakukan peramalan / forecast penjualan, karena akan sangat menentukan manajemen persediaan barang, karena waktu pengiriman yang panjang sekitar 1.5-2 bulan dari Amerika sampai ke Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari metode yang paling tepat dari beberapa model peramalan time series yang umum untuk direkomendasikan sesuai dengan strategi pengendalian persediaan yang akan ditetapkan, dan selanjutnya melakukan peramalan tahun 2015. Untuk itu, dilakukan pengujian pada metode AR, MA, ARMA dan ARIMA, terhadap data penjualan bulanan produk Janssen Legacy dari Januari 2011 sampai Desember 2013. Uji tingkat akurasi dilakukan melalui perbandingan tingkat kesalahan (error) peramalan meliputi nilai MSE, MAE, MAPE dan AIC. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan metode peramalan ARMA (1,1) dengan sampel produk Motilium 10 mg Tab memiliki akurasi yang lebih baik dibanding yang lain. Peramalan tahun 2015 produk Motilium 10 mg Tab lebih efektif dan efisien dan penghematan biayanya signifikan. Kata Kunci ; PERAMALAN, ARMA, SAFETY STOCK, REORDER POINT
| Item Type: | Thesis (S2) |
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| Call Number: | TI/53/15/008 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 55312320004 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | FORECASTING, ARMA, SAFETY STOCK, REORDER POINT PENGALAMAN, ARMA, SAFETY STOCK, REORDER POINT |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology/Teknologi > 670 Manufacturing/Manufaktur, Pabrik-pabrik |
| Divisions: | Pascasarjana > Magister Teknik Industri |
| Depositing User: | Admin Perpus UMB |
| Date Deposited: | 28 May 2015 10:14 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Mar 2022 02:36 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/7186 |
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