PRATAMA, FAHMIL JAYA (2018) ANALISIS PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH, SUKU BUNGA, INFLASI, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, DAN INDEKS DOW JONES TERHADAP PERGERAKAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA (BEI). S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of Exchange Rate, BI Rate, Inflation, World Crude Oil Prices and Dow Jones Index on the volatility of Jakarta Composite Index. Sample taken in this research are monthly data of Exchange Rate IDR to USD, BI Rate, Inflation, Oil Prices WTI, Dow Jones Index and JCI period of 2010-2016. The method of analysis used in this study is multiple linear regression. The result showed that R2=0,954 which means BI Rate, Inflation, World Crude Oil Prices and Dow Jones Index simultaneously affect to the volatility of JCI by 95,4%. The remaining 4,6% the volatility of IHSG influenced by other factors that not observed in this study. Partially World Crude Oil Prices and Dow Jones Index are having significant positive effect on the volatility of JCI, while BI Rate and Inflation are not having significant influence on the volatility of JCI. Keywords: JCI, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, Inflation, World Crude Oil Prices, Dow Jones Index Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Suku Bunga SBI, Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Indeks Dow Jones terhadap pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Sampel yang diambil dalam penelitian adalah data bulanan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar, Suku Bunga SBI, Inflasi, Harga Minyak WTI, Indeks Dow Jones dan IHSG periode 2010-2016. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa R2=0,954 yang berarti bahwa secara bersama-sama Suku Bunga SBI, Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Indeks Dow Jones secara bersama-sama (simultan) mempengaruhi pergerakan IHSG sebesar 95,4%. Sedangkan sisanya 4,6% pergerakan IHSG dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain yang tidak diamati dalam peneitian ini. Secara parsial Harga Minyak Dunia dan Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap pergerakan IHSG, sedangkan Suku Bunga SBI dan Inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pergerakan IHSG. Kata kunci: IHSG, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Suku Bunga SBI, Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, Indeks Dow Jones
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