HANDALI, RIDHO KOKOH (2025) ANALISIS PENGGUNAAN PERAMALAN DALAM MENENTUKAN SAFETY STOCK PRODUK ULTRA PURE WATER DI PT. ELI. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
PT. ELI is a distributor company specializing in laboratory equipment, one of which is the densitometer, widely used in manufacturing, testing, and research laboratories. To ensure accurate measurement results, laboratory instruments require calibration, including densitometers, which utilize Ultra Pure Water as a medium for density measurement. This study aims to forecast the sales of Ultra Pure Water for the next 12 months using time series forecasting methods and determine the minimum safety stock that PT. ELI should maintain. The data used comprises historical sales data of Ultra Pure Water from January 2020 to December 2024, obtained directly from PT. ELI's staff warehouse. The forecasting methods applied include moving average, single exponential smoothing, Winter’s method, and trend linear. The results indicate that Winter’s method provides the best performance, with the lowest error rates: MAPE of 5.68024, MAD of 1.79272, and MSD of 5.14210. Sales forecasting for the next 12 months is projected at 32 pcs per month. Furthermore, the findings suggest that PT. ELI should establish a minimum safety stock of 17 pcs per month to prevent stock shortages and ensure smooth operational processes. Keywords:Forecasting, Time Series, Safety Stock. Ultra pure water. PT. ELI merupakan perusahaan distributor alat laboratorium, salah satunya adalah densitimeter, yang banyak digunakan di laboratorium manufaktur, pengujian, dan penelitian. Untuk memastikan hasil pengukuran yang akurat, alat laboratorium memerlukan kalibrasi, termasuk densitimeter yang memerlukan Ultra Pure Water sebagai media pengukuran densitas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi penjualan Ultra Pure Water selama 12 bulan ke depan menggunakan metode peramalan time series, serta menentukan batas minimum safety stock yang harus disiapkan oleh PT. ELI. Data yang digunakan adalah data historis penjualan Ultra Pure Water dari Januari 2020 hingga Desember 2024, yang diperoleh langsung dari staff warehouse PT. ELI. Metode peramalan yang diterapkan meliputi moving average, single exponential smoothing, winter, dan trend linear. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode winter memberikan hasil terbaik dengan tingkat kesalahan terkecil, yaitu MAPE sebesar 5,68024, MAD 1,79272, dan MSD 5,14210. Peramalan penjualan untuk 12 bulan ke depan diproyeksikan sebesar 32 pcs per bulan. Selain itu, hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa PT. ELI perlu menetapkan batas minimum safety stock sebesar 17 pcs per bulan untuk menghindari kekurangan stok dan menjaga kelancaran operasional. Kata Kunci: Peramalan, Deret Waktu, Safety Stock, Ultra Pure Water.
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