ANALISIS KINERJA WAKTU DAN BIAYA DENGAN EARNED VALUE CONCEPT, PDM, DAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO (Studi kasus: Proyek SMAI Al Azhar 22 Cikarang)

JUNIANSAH, ANAN (2023) ANALISIS KINERJA WAKTU DAN BIAYA DENGAN EARNED VALUE CONCEPT, PDM, DAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO (Studi kasus: Proyek SMAI Al Azhar 22 Cikarang). S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.

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Abstract

Project delays often occur as a source of disputes and demands between owners and contractors, so project delays will be very expensive both from the contractor's side and also seen from the developer's side. The costs that have been accumulated and the time that has been spent in completing a job must be measured continuously against the planning. Significant misappropriation of time and cost concludes that project management is inefficient/poor. Likewise, in the SMAI Al Azhar 22 Cikarang school project, there was a delay in several weeks of work, and there was also a reduction in wage costs that were not in accordance with the initial project plan, so an analysis was carried out with earned value concepts for time and costs, pdm analysis to find out the work that was on the critical path and monte carlo simulation to determine the value of the success rate / probability of the project. Based on the calculation of the estimated total cost value for project completion from the results of the Estimate At Completion (EAC) analysis based on the Earned Value concept at Rp.28,870,282,956.58, where there is an additional cost of Rp. 724,645,213.40 . And the results of the calculation of the probability value obtained from the calculation of the Estimate All Schedule (EAS) on the Earned Value Concept analysis which was done manually with the help of Ms. Excell and the normal distribution table for a duration of 317 days got a probability of 69.15%, and the probability value obtained from the PDM method for a duration of 329 days got a probability of 99.97%, As for the duration of the plan of 315 days, the probability value obtained is only 50%. Where this can also be proven based on the results of Monte Carlo simulations with the help of Crytal Ball software, the results of monte Carlo simulations with a duration of 317 days produce a probability value of 66.32%, and the probability value for the duration of PDM with a duration of 329 days can be a probability of 87.18%, while for the value of the plan duration of 315 days the probability value is only 62.65%. Keywords: School project, delay, Earned Value, PDM, Monte Carlo Simulation Keterlambatan proyek sering sekali terjadi menjadi sumber perselisihan dan tuntutan antara pemilik dan kontraktor, sehingga keterlambatan proyek akan menjadi sangat mahal nilainya baik ditinjau dari sisi kontraktor juga di lihat dari sisi developer. Biaya yang telah diakumulasikan dan waktu yang telah dipakai dalam penyelesaian suatu pekerjaan harus diukur secara berlanjut terhadap perencanaanya. Adanya penyelewengan waktu dan biaya yang signifikan menyimpulkan bahwa pengelolaan proyek tidak efisien/buruk. Begitupun pada proyek sekolah SMAI Al Azhar 22 cikarang ini, terjadi keterlambatan di beberapa minggu pengerjaan, dan terdapat pula pembengkkan biaya upah yang tidak sesuai dengan rencana awal proyek, sehingga di lakukan analisis dengan earned value concept untuk waktu dan biaya, analisis pdm untuk mengetahui pekerjaan yang berada pada jalur kritis dan simulasi monte carlo untuk mengetahui nilai tingkat keberhasilan/probabilitas proyek. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan nilai estimasi biaya total untuk penyelesaian proyek dari hasil analisis Estimate At Completion (EAC) berdasarkan Earned Value concept di dapat Rp.28.870.282.956,58, dimana ada penambahan biaya sebesar Rp 724.645.213,40. Dan hasil perhitungan nilai probabilitas yang di dapat dari perhitungan Estimate All Schedule(EAS) pada analisis Earned Value Concept yang lakukan secara manual dengan bantuan Ms. Excell dan tabel distrubusi normal untuk durasi 317 hari di dapat probabilitas sebesar 69,15%, dan nilai probabilitas yang di dapat dari metode PDM untuk durasi 329 hari di dapat probabilitas 99,97 %, sedangkan untuk durasi rencana 315 hari, nilai probabilitas yang di dapat hanya 50%. Dimana hal ini juga dapat di buktikan berdasarkan hasil dari simulasi Monte Carlo dengan bantuan software Crytal Ball, hasil dari simulasi monte carlo dengan durasi 317 hari menghasilkan nilai probabilitas sebesar 66,32%, dan nilai probabilitas untuk durasi PDM dengan durasi 329 hari di dapat probabilitas 87,18%, sedangkan untuk nilai durasi rencana 315 hari nilai probabilitasnya hanya 62,65%. Kata Kunci : Proyek sekolah, keterlambatan, Earned Value, PDM, Simulasi Monte Carlo

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