DORESDIANA, HERLITA (2021) PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN SUKU CADANG PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID 19 (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Otomotif). S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
The research was conducted to analyze the calculation of demand forecasting and inventory of spare parts . The data collection method uses descriptive quantitative by conducting literature studies, interviews, and collecting sample data of 140 spare parts from June 2019 to June 2020. The data classification process with FSN method, obtained 13 fast moving spare parts use for calculating demand forecasting based on the Triple Exponential Smoothing method. The results from the trial error to get the smoothing value of alpha, beta and gamma errors prioritize to best MAPE <5%. Some MAPE errors above 5% are X000000 000254 MAPE = 5.68% , X000000 005566 MAPE = 21.12, X400 401 10 72 MAPE = 13.14, and X400 401 26 71 MAPE = 16.70. The calculation result for safety stock and Reorder point is find 7 items spare parts below Reorder point include 5 items below Safety stock. . Keywords:, Forecasting, Triple Smoothing Exponential, Safety stock, Reorder point. Penelitian dilakukan untuk menganalisa perhitungan peramalan permintaan dan jumlah persediaan suku cadang . Metoda pengumpulan data menggunakan kuantitatif deskriptif dengan melakukan studi pustaka, wawancara, dan pengumpulan data sampel 140 suku cadang bulan Juni 2019 sampai dengan Juni 2020. Proses pengklasifikasian data menggunakan metode FSN, didapatkan 13 suku cadang fast moving yang digunakan untuk perhitungan peramalan permintaan berdasarkan metode Triple Smoothing Exponential. Hasil trial error untuk mendapat nilai pemulusan alpha, beta dan gama. Dengan mengutamakan nilai MAPE terbaik <5%, masih didapat error MAPE di atas 5% pada X000000 000254 MAPE = 5.68% , X000000 005566 MAPE = 21.12, X400 401 10 72 MAPE = 13.14, dan X400 401 26 71 MAPE = 16.70. Perhitungan safety stock dan reorder point menghasilkan 7 suku cadang harus dilakukan pengisian ulang, termasuk di dalamnya 5 suku cadang dibawah nilai persediaan pengaman. Kata Kunci: Peramalan, Triple Smoothing Exponential, Safety stock, Reorder point.
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