BIMANTORO, FANJI ANDI (2021) PERAMALAN DENGAN METODE ANALISIS DERET WAKTU DI PT. RASAPRIMA BEKASI - JAWA BARAT. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study aims to determine the most valid forecasting method based on the time series method. The research method used is descriptive quantitative sourced from secondary data sales of MT products belonging to PT. Rasaprima period August 2018-January 2021. Data processing uses Microsoft excel and Minitab 19 software. The results of the ABC analysis show that the item codes RSM020, RSM021, RSM017, RSM016, and RSM001 are in the top five ranks in class A by contributing 62.3% of the product value. Based on the results of forecasting with various time series methods (linear trend, decomposition, moving average, single exponential smoothing, Holt's Method, and Winter's Method) it is found that the Winter's Method forecasting produces the lowest MAPE value, which is below 20%. Item code RSM020 produces MAPE 17.2%, item code RSM021 produces MAPE 15.3%, item code RSM017 produces MAPE 18.1%, item code RSM016 produces MAPE 12.3%, and item code RSM001 produces MAPE 9.8% . Keyword: Forecasting, ABC Analysis, Time Series Method Penelitan ini bertujuan untuk menentukan metode peramalan yang paling valid berdasarkan metode deret waktu. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah deskriptif kuantitatif bersumber dari data sekunder penjualan produk MT milik PT. Rasaprima periode Agustus 2018-Januari 2021. Pengolahan data menggunakan software Microsoft excel dan Minitab 19. Hasil analisis ABC menunjukkan kode item RSM020, RSM021, RSM017, RSM016, dan RSM001 menduduki lima peringkat tertinggi di kelas A dengan menyumbangkan 62,3% dari nilai produk. Berdasarkan hasil peramalan dengan berbagai metode deret waktu (linear trend, dekomposisi, moving average, single expone didapatkan hasil bahwa peramalan menghasilkan nilai MAPE terendah yaitu dibawah 20%. Kode item RSM020 menghasilkan MAPE 17,2%, kode item RSM021 menghasilkan MAPE 15,3%, kode item RSM017 menghasilkan MAPE 18,1%, kode item RSM016 menghasilkan MAPE 12,3%, dan kode item RSM001 menghasilkan MAPE 9,8%. Kata Kunci: Forecasting, Analisis ABC, metode deret waktu
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