LISTYANTOKO, RULLY ANDIKA (2020) ANALISIS ALOKASI CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) UNTUK INDUSTRI HILIR DI INDONESIA. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
Oil palm plays a very important role in the development of the food industry, chemical industry, and the development of renewable energy in Indonesia. To solve the problem of energy and food needs, it is necessary to allocate the maximum share of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) to support the downstream palm oil industry, in this study uses a multiple linear regression model to measure the influence of independent variables, namely land area, domestic needs and exports change leaning, i.e. CPO Requirements. and input output analysis is used to set maximum CPO allocation for downstream oil palm industry, and forecasts are used to meet future CPO production and use needs. From multiple linear regression analysis, production output by 2022 is 66 million tonnes. In the input- output analysis, the result of the allocation for CPO requirements for downstream industries is 48.21 million tonnes of cooking oil, 0.99 million tonnes of margarine, 8.85 million tonnes of biodiesel, 4.9 million tonnes of soap and detergent and 7.04 million tonnes of basic oleo chemicals. The total volume for the downstream palm oil industry is 78 million tonnes. Another implication for the downstream industrial sector is that renewable energy or biodiesel requires CPO requirements without interfering with the needs of the food sector, so CPO is required B20 = 37.8 million tonnes, B30 = 41.5 million tonnes, B50 = 48.7 million tonnes, B70 = 56 million tonnes, and B100 = 66.9 million tons. Keyword: Crude Oil Palm, Multiple Linier Regression, Downstream Palm Oil Minyak sawit mempunyai peranan yang sangat penting dalam kemajuan industri makanan, industri kimia, dan pengembangan energi yang terbarukan di Indonesia. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan kebutuhan energi dan pangan maka diperlukan alokasi pembagian Crude Palm Oil (CPO) maksimum untuk mendukung industri hilir kelapa sawit, pada penelitian ini menggunakan model regresi linier berganda untuk mengukur pengaruh variabel bebas yaitu luas lahan, kebutuhan domestik dan eksport terhadap variabel terikat yaitu kebutuhan CPO. dan analisis input output digunakan untuk mengatur alokasi CPO yang maksimum untuk industri hilir kelapa sawit, serta digukannya peramalan untuk mengetauhi produksi CPO dan konsumsi kebutuhan domestik yang akan datang. Dari analisis regresi linier berganda diperoleh hasil produksi pada tahun 2022 sejumlah 66 juta ton. Pada analisis input output diperoleh hasil alokasi untuk kebutuhan CPO untuk industri hilir yaitu sektor minyak goreng 48.21 juta ton, margarin 0.99 juta ton, biodiesel 8.85 juta ton, sabun dan deterjen 4.9 juta ton dan oleo kimia dasar 7.04 juta ton. Jumlah keseluruhan untuk industri hilir kelapa sawit 78 juta ton. Implikasi pada sektor indutri hilir yang lain yaitu energi terbarukan atau biodiesel dibutuhkan kebutuhan CPO dengan tidak mengganggu kebutuhan pada sektor pangan maka dibutuhkan CPO B20 = 37.8 juta ton, B30 = 41.5 juta ton, B50 = 48.7 juta ton, B70 = 56 juta ton, dan selanjutnya B100 = 66.9 juta ton. Kata Kunci: Crude Oil Palm, Regresi Linier Berganda, Kebutuhan Minyak Sawit
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