FAHRIZI, MUHAMMAD IRGI (2023) PERBANDINGAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN ARIMA PADA PERAMALAN PRODUKSI SAWIT NASIONAL. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Bekasi.
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Abstract
Minyak kelapa sawit sering digunakan sebagai komponen utama dalam produksi minyak goreng, sebagai bahan campuran dalam pembuatan biodiesel, dalam campuran produk kosmetik, dan juga sebagai bahan pangan untuk berbagai keperluan lainnya. Kelapa sawit merupakan komoditas dengan nilai ekonomi yang signifikan. Oleh karena itu diperlukan suatu Teknik peramalan terkait produksi sawit dimasa mendatang sehingga dapat berantisipasi jika menaik dan menurun. Metode peramalan yang digunakan adalah Metode ARIMA & Exponential Smoothing. Peramalan dilakukan dengan jumlah data sebanyak 119 data dengan data 9 tahun terakhir periode 2013 hingga 2022. Hasil peramalan tersebut menyatakan bahwa Algoritma Exponential Smoothing lebih baik dibandingkan dengan Algoritma ARIMA dengan nilai hasil Mean Absolute Error dan R-square berturut – turut sebesar 30% : 10,9%. Hasil tersebut juga belum dapat dikatakan baik dikarenakan hasil jauh dari rata – rata yang ada dan hasil pengujian kedua Algoritma tersebut masih sangat kurang memuaskan dalam melakukan peramalan produksi kelapa sawit. Kata Kunci : peramalan, produksi, sawit, ARIMA,Exponential smoothing, Palm oil is widely used as a basic ingredient for cooking oil, biodiesel mixtures and other cosmetic mixtures and foodstuffs. Palm oil is a commodity with high economic value. Therefore, a forecasting technique related to palm oil production in the future is needed so that it can anticipate if it rises and decreases. The forecasting method used is the ARIMA &; Exponential Smoothing Method. Forecasting is carried out with a total of 119 data with data for the last 9 years from 2013 to 2022. The forecasting results stated that the Exponential Smoothing Algorithm was better than the ARIMA Algorithm with the Mean Absolute Error and R-square result values of 30%: 10,9% respectively. These results also cannot be said to be good because the results are far from the existing average and the test results of the two algorithms are still very unsatisfactory in forecasting palm oil production. Keywords— forecasting, production, palm oil, ARIMA, exponential smoothing
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Call Number CD: | FIK/INFO 23 028 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 41519210020 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | peramalan, produksi, sawit, ARIMA,Exponential smoothing, |
| Subjects: | 000 Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 000. Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 004 Data Processing, Computer Science/Pemrosesan Data, Ilmu Komputer, Teknik Informatika |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > Informatika |
| Depositing User: | siti maisyaroh |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Sep 2023 04:05 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2023 04:05 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/81514 |
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