ANALISA PERBANDINGAN METODE FORECASTING (VAR) VECTOR AUTO REGGRESSION DENGAN (ARIMA) AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN PRODUKSI DAGING AYAM RAS PADA PANDEMI COVID-19 DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT

ISLAM, MUHAMMAD IZZATUL (2022) ANALISA PERBANDINGAN METODE FORECASTING (VAR) VECTOR AUTO REGGRESSION DENGAN (ARIMA) AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN PRODUKSI DAGING AYAM RAS PADA PANDEMI COVID-19 DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.

[img]
Preview
 Text (HAL COVER)
1. Hal Cover.pdf
Download (876kB) | Preview
[img]
Preview
 Text (ABSTRAK)
ABSTRAK.pdf
Download (311kB) | Preview
[img] Text (BAB I)
2. BAB I.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (269kB)
[img] Text (BAB II)
3. BAB II.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (916kB)
[img] Text (BAB III)
4. BAB III.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (265kB)
[img] Text (BAB IV)
5. BAB IV.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (896kB)
[img] Text (BAB V)
6. BAB V.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (282kB)
[img] Text (DAFTAR PUSTAKA)
7. DAFTAR PUSTAKA.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (452kB)
[img] Text (LAMPIRAN)
8. LAMPIRAN.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Download (1MB)

Abstract

This study aims to predict the production of broiler meat in West Java Province in 2021- 2025. The method used in this study is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method. The time series data used in this study is data on the production of broiler meat in West Java Province for 2000-2020. The use of ARIMA and VAR methods was compared to find out which the best method in forecasting broiler meat production by calculating the MAD, MSE, and MAPE forecasting errors. The software used as an analysis tool for ARIMA and VAR models is Eviews 10. The results of the study show that the best method used is VAR with a MAPE value of 13,45. The application of VAR method to the production of broiler meat for the next five years has increased. Keywords —Broiler meat; Forecasting; Time Series; ARIMA; VAR Kajian Ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan produksi daging ayam ras di Provinsi Jawa Barat tahun 2021-2025. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode Autoregresive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan Vector Auto Regression (VAR). Data deret waktu (time series) yang digunakan pada kajian ini adalah data produksi daging ayam ras Provinsi Jawa Barat tahun 2000-2020. Penggunaan Metode ARIMA dan VAR dibandingkan untuk mengetahui metode mana yang terbaik dalam peramalan produksi daging ayam ras dengan menghitung tingkat kesalahan peramalan MAD, MSE dan MAPE. Perangkat lunak yang digunakan sebagai alat bantu analisis Model ARIMA dan VAR adalah Eviews 10. Hasil kajian menunjukan bahwa model yang terbaik digunakan adalah VAR dengan nilai MAPE 13.45. Penerapan Model VAR pada produksi daging ayam ras untuk 5 tahun kedepan berikutnya mengalami kenaikan. Kata Kunci —Daging Ayam Ras; Peramalan; Time Series; Arima; VAR

Item Type: Thesis (S2)
Call Number CD: CD/551. 22 081
Call Number: TM/51/22/067
NIM/NIDN Creators: 55119120074
Uncontrolled Keywords: Daging Ayam Ras; Peramalan; Time Series; Arima; VAR
Subjects: 000 Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 000. Computer Science, Information and General Works/Ilmu Komputer, Informasi, dan Karya Umum > 003 Systems/Sistem-sistem > 003.2 Forecasting and Forecast, Futurology/Peramal dan Ramalan, Futurologi
600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum
600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum > 658.2 Plant Management/Manajemen Pabrik
600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum > 658.5 Management of Production/Manajemen Produksi
Divisions: Pascasarjana > Magister Manajemen
Depositing User: ADELINA HASNA SETIAWATI
Date Deposited: 25 Nov 2022 05:31
Last Modified: 25 Nov 2022 05:31
URI: http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/71935

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item
UMB Repository is powered by EPrints 3 which is developed by the School of Electronics and Computer Science at the University of Southampton. More information and software credits.