PRITIANA, FEBI (2026) IMPLEMENTASI METODE REGRESI LINEAR SEDERHANA UNTUK PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK DESA BENGLE KARAWANG. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
Population growth is a crucial indicator for regional development planning, particularly at the village level. Demographic characteristics based on age groups such as children under five, the working-age population, and the elderly play a strategic role in planning targeted public services. However, population data management in Bengle Village remains purely descriptive and has not yet been utilized for predictive analysis; consequently, the village government faces limitations in obtaining a clear picture of population growth to serve as a basis for population administration planning. This study aims to implement the Simple Linear Regression method to analyze population growth patterns based on historical data, generate predictions for the total population and the number of children under five for the next three years, and present these findings through a web-based system. The data utilized comprises Bengle Village population records from 2022 to 2024, totaling approximately 9,293 aggregated records. Implementation results demonstrate that the developed web-based system successfully displays population data visualizations, growth charts, prediction results, and RMSE evaluation values. Model performance was evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), yielding values of 3.2998 for total population predictions and 1.8856 for predictions regarding children under five; these low error rates indicate the model's reliability. The study's findings are expected to assist the Bengle Village government in supporting population administration planning and meeting community service needs such as Posyandu more effectively and through a data-driven approach. Keywords: Simple Linear Regression, Population Prediction, Children Under Five, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Web-Based System Pertumbuhan penduduk merupakan indikator penting dalam perencanaan pembangunan daerah, khususnya di tingkat desa. Karakteristik demografis berdasarkan umur seperti balita, usia produktif, dan lansia memainkan peran strategis dalam perencanaan layanan publik yang tepat sasaran. Namun, pengelolaan data penduduk di Desa Bengle masih bersifat deskriptif dan belum dimanfaatkan untuk analisis prediktif, sehingga pemerintah desa mengalami keterbatasan dalam memperoleh gambaran pertumbuhan penduduk sebagai dasar perencanaan administrasi kependudukan. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengimplementasikan metode Regresi Linear Sederhana untuk menganalisis pola pertumbuhan penduduk berdasarkan data historis, menghasilkan prediksi jumlah penduduk dan balita selama 3 tahun ke depan, serta menyajikannya dalam sistem berbasis web. Data yang digunakan adalah data kependudukan Desa Bengle tahun 2022–2024 dengan total sekitar 9.293 data penduduk gabungan. Hasil implementasi menunjukkan bahwa sistem berbasis web yang dibangun mampu menampilkan visualisasi data penduduk, grafik pertumbuhan, hasil prediksi, serta nilai evaluasi RMSE. Kinerja model dievaluasi menggunakan Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), dengan nilai RMSE prediksi jumlah penduduk sebesar 3,2998 dan prediksi jumlah balita sebesar 1,8856, yang menunjukkan tingkat kesalahan rendah sehingga model dapat diandalkan. Hasil penelitian diharapkan dapat membantu pemerintah Desa Bengle dalam mendukung perencanaan administrasi kependudukan dan pemenuhan kebutuhan layanan masyarakat seperti Posyandu secara lebih efektif dan berbasis data. Kata kunci: Regresi Linear Sederhana, Prediksi Penduduk, Balita, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Sistem Berbasis Web
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
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| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 41822110003 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Regresi Linear Sederhana, Prediksi Penduduk, Balita, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Sistem Berbasis Web |
| Subjects: | 300 Social Science/Ilmu-ilmu Sosial > 300. Social Science/Ilmu-ilmu Sosial > 304 Factors Affecting Social Behaviour/Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkah Laku Sosial > 304.6 Demography, Population/Demografi, Penduduk, Ilmu Kependudukan 500 Natural Science and Mathematics/Ilmu-ilmu Alam dan Matematika > 510 Mathematics/Matematika > 518 Numerical Analysis/Analisis Numerik, Analisa Numerik > 518.1 Algorithms/Algoritma |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > Sistem Informasi |
| Depositing User: | khalimah |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Sep 2026 07:48 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Sep 2026 07:48 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/103580 |
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