HANIF, LUCKY DAFFA (2024) ANALISIS RISIKO PENJADWALAN PROYEK DENGAN METODE SIMULASI MONTE CARLO DAN PDM (Studi Kasus : Pembangunan Tower C Rumah Sakit Kanker Dharmais). S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
Construction projects that take a long time and are complex can give rise to various risks which will ultimately give rise to delays and uncertainty in the project. Sources of uncertainty in construction projects include the environment, the workforce, and many more. Therefore, a method is needed that can produce a probability presentation due to the risk of delay or uncertainty. This research aims to determine the risks that can result in project delays and uncertainty and to determine the comparison between project duration using the Monte Carlo simulation method and the Precedence Diagram Method (PDM). Work factors that have a risk of time delays in the construction of Tower C at Dharmais Cancer Hospital include HR capabilities in planning, less detailed design, design changes due to adjustments to field conditions, productivity not according to work schedule, late payments, workforce discipline. , Land Conditions Not According to Plan. The results of the comparison of the probabilistic Monte Carlo method with the deterministic precedence diagram method (PDM) in the construction of tower C at the Dharmais Cancer Hospital, namely for the PDM method, the time obtained was 402 days, while the Monte Carlo simulation method obtained a time of 413 days. Comparison of Monte Carlo and PDM simulation analysis shows almost the same results. Keywords : Risk, scheduling, uncertainty, delay, precedence diagram method (PDM), Monte Carlo simulation method. Proyek konstruksi yang memakan waktu cukup lama dan kompleks dapat menimbulkan berbagai risiko yang akhirnya akan memunculkan keterlambatan dan ketidakpastian dalam proyek. Sumber ketidakpastian pada proyek konstruksi antara lain dari lingkungan, tenaga kerjanya, dan masih banyak lagi. Maka dari itu perlu metode yang bisa memunculkan presentase probabilitas akibat risiko keterlambatan atau ketidakpastian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui risiko yang dapat mengakibatkan keterlambatan dan ketidakpastian proyek serta untuk mengetahui perbandingan antara durasi proyek menggunakan metode simulasi Monte Carlo dan Precedence Diagram Method (PDM). Variabel pekerjaan yang memiliki risiko keterlambatan terhadap waktu pada pembangunan Tower C Rumah Sakit Kanker Dharmais antara lain Kemampuan SDM Dalam Perencanaan, Desain Yang Kurang Mendetail, Perubahan Desain Akibat Penyesuaian Dengan Kondisi Lapangan, Produktivitas Tidak Sesuai Schedule Pekerjaan, Keterlambatan Pembayaran, Kedisiplinan Tenaga Kerja, Kondisi Tanah Tidak Sesuai Perencanaan. Hasil perbandingan metode probabilistik monte carlo dengan metode deterministik precedence diagram method (PDM) pada pembangunan tower c rumah sakit kanker dharmais yaitu untuk metode PDM diperoleh waktu selama 402 hari, sedangkan metode simulasi monte carlo diperoleh waktu selama 413 hari. Perbandingan analisa simulasi monte carlo dan PDM menunjukkan hasil yang hampir sama. Kata Kunci : Risiko, penjadwalan, ketidakpastian, keterlambatan, precedence diagram method (PDM) , metode simulasi monte carlo.
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