PURWANTO, ARIS (2015) ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENJUALAN DAN PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN STUDI KASUS: DISTRIBUSI FARMASI. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta - Menteng.
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Abstract
Janssens Legacy is a pharmacy product import division, from America, which is distributed by PPG. Import product should have a better sales forecasting, considering that import poduct has a lead time 1,5 until 2 month to arrive in Indonesian market.The objective of this research is to find the best method for common sales forecasting model of time series and then to find the 2015 forecasting. Base on the objective, this research trial the AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA method to the monthly sales data of Janssen Legacy Product from January 2011 until December 2013. The acuracy measurement for this forecasting is comparing from error value of MSE, MAE, MAPE and AIC. The result of this research said that forecasting method of ARMA (1,1) Motilium 10 mg Tab product has a better accuracy compared with the other method. Forecasting for the coming year of Motilium 10 mg Tab product more effective and efficient, and the cost efficiency is significant. Key Words : FORECASTING, ARMA, SAFETY STOCK, REORDER POINT
| Item Type: | Thesis (S2) |
|---|---|
| Call Number CD: | CDT-553-15-067 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 55312320004 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | FORECASTING, ARMA, SAFETY STOCK, REORDER POINT. MTI, MAGISTER TEKNIK INDUSTRI |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology/Teknologi > 670 Manufacturing/Manufaktur, Pabrik-pabrik |
| Divisions: | Pascasarjana > Magister Teknik Industri |
| Depositing User: | RIA SYAFITRI |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Jun 2022 04:28 |
| Last Modified: | 03 Mar 2023 02:52 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/64194 |
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