PATRIA, RIO (2020) INTEGRASI FORECASTING PADA RANTAI PASOK MANUFAKTUR KOMPONEN OTOMOTIF JEPANG DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENERAPAN MODEL CLASSIC DAN REGRESI. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
This research are takes the title "Integration of Forecasting in the Supply Chain of Japanese Automotive Components in Indonesia with the Application of Classic and Regression Models" with the aim of research is designing forecasting models and improving forecast accuracy in the implementation of the supply chain business process. As we know the need of spark plugs as a replacement component has a potential demand, especially for a Company from Japan which establish in the last 40 year ago as manufacture of spark plugs in Indonesia. Sales forecast of spark plugs that develop by Company for aftermarket class has big error. It makes a question ‘how to improve the accuracy of forecasting spark plugs in the aftermarket class to reduce losses in the supply chain process’, such as loss due to inventory, production and transportation. In this study, it was found that using ARIMA and MLR methods could increase level of accuracy than current forecasting method by Company. It was found that the increment in forecasting accuracy by using ARIMA and MLR was able to reduce operational costs up to 25.05% per year in overtime costs and 40.21% per year in finished goods inventory costs. In addition, reducing the cost of shipping materials by 24.90% per year, and reducing inventory costs on Suppliers by 25.74% per year. Keywords: forecasting, ARIMA, MLR, inventory, supply chain. Penelitian mengusung judul “Integrasi Forecasting pada Rantai Pasok Manufaktur Komponen Otomotif Jepang di Indonesia Dengan Penerapan Model Classic dan Regresi” dengan tujuan untuk merancang model forecasting dan meningkatkan akurasi forecast dalam implementasi pada bisnis proses rantai pasok. Dimana diketahui bahwa kebutuhan Busi sebagai komponen pengganti pada kendaraan mempunyai permintaan yang cukup besar, khususnya bagi manufaktur busi asal Jepang yang telah berdiri sejak 40 tahun yang lalu di Indonesia. Peramalan penjualan busi yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan pada aftermarket memiliki akurasi yang tidak cukup baik. Sehingga permasalahan yang muncul adalah bagaimana meningkatkan akurasi peramalan busi pada aftermarket untuk mengurangi rugi-rugi pada proses rantai pasok, yaitu rugi inventory, produksi dan transportasi. Pada penelitian ini didapatkan bahwa penggunaan metode ARIMA dan MLR memiliki tingkat akurasi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan metode peramalan yang dilakukan perusahaan ataupun model peramalan lainnya. Didapatkan peningkatan akurasi peramalan menggunakan ARIMA dan MLR mampu menurunkan biaya operasional sampai dengan 25.05% pertahun pada biaya overtime dan 40.21% per tahun pada biaya inventory produk jadi. Selain itu menurunkan biaya pengiriman material sampai dengan 24.90% pertahun, serta mengurangi biaya inventory Supplier sebesar 25.74% pertahun. Kata Kunci: peramalan, ARIMA, MLR, inventory, rantai pasok
| Item Type: | Thesis (S2) |
|---|---|
| Call Number CD: | CD/553. 20 041 |
| Call Number: | TI/53/21/036 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 55317120037 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | peramalan, ARIMA, MLR, inventory, rantai pasok |
| Subjects: | 300 Social Science/Ilmu-ilmu Sosial > 380 Commerce, Communications, Transportation (Perdagangan, Komunikasi, Transportasi) 600 Technology/Teknologi > 670 Manufacturing/Manufaktur, Pabrik-pabrik 700 Arts/Seni, Seni Rupa, Kesenian > 730 Plastic Arts and Sculpture/Seni Plastik dan Seni Patung > 731 Classical Mechanics, Solid Mechanics/Mekanika Klasik, Mekanika Benda Padat > 731.4 Techniques and Procedures of Sculpture/Teknik Seni Patung, Prosedur Seni Patung > 731.42 Modeling/Permodelan |
| Divisions: | Pascasarjana > Magister Teknik Industri |
| Depositing User: | Rifky |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Dec 2021 08:20 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Apr 2022 01:27 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/50621 |
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