NABILAH, FARA (2026) PENGARUH JUMLAH KENDARAAN BERMOTOR, JUMLAH PENDUDUK DAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB) PER KAPITA TERHADAP PENERIMAAN PAJAK KENDARAAN BERMOTOR (PKB) DI PULAU JAWA DAN SUMATERA TAHUN 2020-2023. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
The phenomenon of declining motor vehicle tax revenue nationally in recent years has become an significant issue, despite the continuing increase in the number of motor vehicles and Indonesia’s sustained economic growth. This study aims to analyze the impact of the number of motor vehicles, population, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita on actual motor vehicle tax revenue in Java and Sumatra during the period 2020-2023. The research sample comprises 15 provinces across Java and Sumatra wich have deverse economic and demographic characteristics. The research employs a causal-quantitative as well as multiplelinear regression analysis to examine the impact of each independent variable on Motor Vehicle Tax revenue. The data used in this analysis is secondary data, in the form of documentation obtained from the Central Statistics Agency, the, Directorate-General of Fiscal Balance, Regional Revenue Agency, and other official sources. The results of the study are expected to make theoretical and practical contributions in optimizing regional fiscal policy, especially in increasing Motor Vehicle Tax revenue. The resultssimultaneously indicate that Number of Motor Vehicles, Population, and Gross Regional Domestic (GRDP) per capita have an impact on Motor Vehicle Tax Revenue, and the model demonstrates very strong explanatory power (Adjusted R Square of 0.826). Partially, the variables of population and GRDP per capita have a positive and significant effect on motor vehicles tax revenue, while thevariables of the number of motor vehicles is insignificant effect. These findings suggest that variations in motor vehicle tax revenue are more consistently explained by demographic factors and regional economic capacity rather than merely by the growth in the number of registered vehicles. This study is expected to provide both theoretical and practicalcontributions to the optimization of regional fiscal policy, particularly in strengthening strategies to enhance motor vehicle tax revenue. Keywords: Motor Vehicle Tax, Number of Motor Vehicles, Population, GRDP per Capita Fenomena penurunan penerimaan/pendapatan PKB (Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor) nasional beberapa tahun terakhir menjadi masalah yang signifikan, meskipun jumlah kendaraan bermotor terus bertambah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia terus berkembang. Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis dampak dari jumlah kendaraan bermotor, jumlah penduduk, dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) per kapita terhadap penerimaan PKB di Pulau Jawa dan Sumatera selama periode 2020–2023. Menggunakan metode sampling jenuh, dengan total sampel 15 provinsi di Pulau Jawa dan Sumatera, dengan ekonomi dan demografi yang berbeda atau beragam. Penelitian menggunakan metode atau desain penelitian kausalkuantitatif serta analisis regresi linier berganda untuk mengkaji dampak tiap-tiap variabel independen terhadap penerimaan PKB. Data yang digunakan pada analisis ini adalah data sekunder, berupa dokumentasi diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik, Direktorat Jenderal Perimbangan Keuangan, Badan Pendapatan Daerah, dan sumber resmi lainnya. Hasil temuan penelitian diharapkan memberikan baik kontribusi teoretis maupun praktis terhadap optimalisasi kebijakan fiskal daerah, khususnya terkait peningkatan realisasi penerimaan PKB. Hasil penelitian secara simultan menunjukkan bahwa variabel Jumlah Kendaraan Bermotor, Jumlah Penduduk, dan PDRB per kapita berpengaruh terhadap Penerimaan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor dan model tersebut memiliki daya jelaskan yang kuat (Adjusted R Square sebesar 0,826). Secara parsial, variabel jumlah penduduk dan PDRB per kapita berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor, sedangkan variabel jumlah kendaraan bermotor tidak signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa variasi dalam realisasi penerimaan PKB lebih konsisten dijelaskan oleh faktor-faktor demografis dan kemampuanekonomi masyarakat daripada sekadar pertumbuhan jumlah kendaraan. Penelitian diharapkan mampu memberikan baik kontribusi teoretis maupun praktis dalam optimalisasi kebijakan fiskal daerah, khususnya dalam upaya meningkatkan penerimaan PKB. Kata Kunci Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor, Jumlah Kendaraan Bermotor, Jumlah Penduduk, PDRB per Kapita
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