ARYANI, NOVA (2026) ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR RISIKO CONTINGENCY COST DAN MODEL MANAJEMEN SUMBER DAYA MANUSIA PADA PERUSAHAAN EPC OIL & GAS DI INDONESIA. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects in the Oil & Gas sector are characterized by high complexity and uncertainty, making them particularly vulnerable to cost deviations, especially in the determination and utilization of Contingency cost. In practice, contingency is often estimated based on fixed historical percentages without fully integrating project risk factors and the effectiveness of human resource management (HRM), resulting in suboptimal cost control. This study aims to analyze the effect of project risk on Contingency cost by examining the mediating role of HRM and to identify improvement priorities using Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA/IPMA). An embedded mixed-method approach was employed. Quantitative data were collected through questionnaires distributed to EPC Oil & Gas project professionals and analyzed using Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to test both direct and indirect relationships among variables. Importance–Performance Map Analysis (IPMA) was subsequently applied to identify priority areas for improvement based on the importance and performance of risk and HRM indicators. The predictive capability of the model was evaluated using the PLS-Predict procedure and compared with linear regression. Qualitative interview data were used to strengthen and contextualize the interpretation of quantitative findings. The results indicate that project risk has a positive and significant effect on Contingency cost. HRM plays a partial mediating role by reducing the impact of risk on contingency requirements through improved competence, coordination, and project control effectiveness. The SEM-PLS model demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to linear regression. IPMA results identify several risk and HRM indicators positioned in the high-importance, low-performance quadrant, requiring managerial attention. This study contributes theoretically by developing an integrated risk–HRM–Contingency cost framework and practically by providing a data-driven priority improvement model for EPC Oil & Gas companies in Indonesia. Keywords: EPC, Oil & Gas, project risk, human resource management, Contingency cost, SEM-PLS, IPA/IPMA. Proyek Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) pada sektor Oil & Gas memiliki tingkat kompleksitas dan ketidakpastian yang tinggi, sehingga rentan terhadap deviasi biaya, khususnya dalam penetapan dan penggunaan Contingency cost. Praktik penentuan contingency yang masih berbasis persentase historis dan belum sepenuhnya mengintegrasikan faktor risiko proyek serta efektivitas manajemen sumber daya manusia (SDM) menyebabkan pengendalian biaya proyek belum optimal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh risiko proyek terhadap Contingency cost dengan mempertimbangkan peran mediasi manajemen SDM, serta menyusun prioritas perbaikan berbasis Importance– Performance Analysis (IPA/IPMA). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan mixed-method embedded. Data kuantitatif diperoleh melalui kuesioner yang disebarkan kepada profesional proyek EPC Oil & Gas dan dianalisis menggunakan Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) untuk menguji hubungan langsung dan tidak langsung antar variabel. Selanjutnya, Importance– Performance Map Analysis (IPMA) digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi indikator risiko dan aspek manajemen SDM yang menjadi prioritas perbaikan berdasarkan tingkat kepentingan dan kinerjanya. Evaluasi kemampuan prediksi model dilakukan melalui prosedur PLS-Predict dan dibandingkan dengan regresi linier. Data kualitatif dari wawancara digunakan untuk memperkuat interpretasi hasil kuantitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa risiko proyek berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Contingency cost. Manajemen SDM terbukti berperan sebagai variabel mediasi parsial yang memperlemah dampak risiko terhadap kebutuhan dana cadangan melalui peningkatan kompetensi, koordinasi, dan efektivitas pengendalian proyek. Model SEM-PLS menunjukkan kemampuan prediktif yang lebih baik dibandingkan model regresi linier. Hasil IPMA mengidentifikasi beberapa indikator risiko dan SDM yang berada pada kuadran prioritas utama, sehingga memerlukan perhatian manajerial. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi teoretis melalui pengembangan model integratif risiko– SDM–Contingency cost, serta kontribusi praktis berupa kerangka prioritas perbaikan berbasis data bagi perusahaan EPC Oil & Gas di Indonesia. Kata kunci: EPC, Oil & Gas, risiko proyek, manajemen sumber daya manusia, Contingency cost, SEM-PLS, IPA/IPMA.
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