ARITONANG, RAKHAN FAHREZI (2026) PREDIKSI HARGA GABAH BERDASARKAN FAKTOR CUACA MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMAX. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study aims to predict fluctuations in grain prices in Lampung Province by integrating meteorological variables using the ARIMAX model. Using secondary data from January 2018 to December 2025 (96 months), the exogenous variables analyzed include rainfall, temperature, humidity, sunshine, and rice production. This study applies a time lag mechanism to weather variables to accommodate the biological lag of crops, whereby the impact of weather changes during the planting season will affect productivity and prices several months later (lagged effect). Based on the test results, the model without time lag produced an MAPE error rate of 12.69%, while the integration of time lag significantly improved accuracy, with MAPE becoming 7.69% and MAE Rp489 (Good Forecast). These results confirm the existence of a significant delayed weather causality effect, making this model an adaptive instrument to support the 2026 food price stability policy. Keywords: Grain Price Fluctuation, ARIMAX, Meteorological Variables Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi fluktuasi harga gabah di Provinsi Lampung dengan mengintegrasikan variabel meteorologis menggunakan model ARIMAX. Menggunakan data sekunder periode Januari 2018–Desember 2025 (96 bulan), variabel eksogen yang dianalisis meliputi curah hujan, suhu, kelembapan, penyinaran matahari, dan produksi padi. Penelitian ini menerapkan mekanisme time lag (jeda waktu) pada variabel cuaca untuk mengakomodasi jeda biologis tanaman, di mana dampak perubahan cuaca saat masa tanam baru akan mempengaruhi produktivitas dan harga beberapa bulan kemudian (lagged effect). Berdasarkan hasil pengujian, model tanpa time lag menghasilkan tingkat kesalahan MAPE sebesar 12.69%, sedangkan integrasi time lag terbukti meningkatkan akurasi secara signifikan dengan MAPE menjadi 7.69% dan MAE Rp489 (Good Forecast). Hasil ini mengonfirmasi adanya dampak kausalitas tunda cuaca yang signifikan, menjadikan model ini instrumen yang adaptif untuk mendukung kebijakan stabilitas harga pangan tahun 2026. Kata kunci: Fluktuasi, Harga Gabah, ARIMAX, Variabel Meteorologis.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
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| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 41822010021 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Fluktuasi, Harga Gabah, ARIMAX, Variabel Meteorologis. |
| Subjects: | 300 Social Science/Ilmu-ilmu Sosial > 330 Economics/Ilmu Ekonomi > 338 Production, Industrial Economics/Produksi, Ekonomi Industri > 338.1 Agriculture, Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Industries/Industri Pertanian, Ekonomi Pertanian 500 Natural Science and Mathematics/Ilmu-ilmu Alam dan Matematika > 550 Earth Sciences/Ilmu tentang Bumi > 551 Geology/Geologi > 551.6 Climatology and Weather/Klimatologi, Iklim dan Cuaca |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ilmu Komputer > Sistem Informasi |
| Depositing User: | khalimah |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Mar 2026 03:24 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Mar 2026 03:24 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/101430 |
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