SAPUTRO, RIZAL SIGIT (2025) ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE, SPRINGATE, DAN ZMIJEWSKI DALAM MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS PERUSAHAAN SUBSEKTOR RETAIL YANG TERCATAT DI BEI. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
This study was conducted with the aim of comparing the predictive level of financial distress using three models: Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski. The primary focus of this research is to identify the most accurate model in predicting potential bankruptcy among retail subsector companies characterized by low liquidity, as measured by the Current Ratio; low profitability, as indicated by the Net Profit Margin; and high solvency levels, based on the Debt to Asset Ratio. The objects of this study consist of retail companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2019 to 2023 period. The sample was selected using a purposive sampling method. Data analysis was carried out by calculating financial ratios from the companies’ financial statements using the respective formulas of each model, followed by an accuracy test to determine which model is the most appropriate. The results of the analysis show differences in the accuracy levels among the three models. The Altman model recorded an accuracy rate of 36.67% with an error rate of 63.33%; the Springate model achieved an accuracy of 56.67% with an error rate of 43.33%; while the Zmijewski model had the highest accuracy at 63.33% and the lowest error rate of 36.67%. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that there are differences in prediction results among the models, with the Zmijewski model being the most accurate in predicting potential financial distress in retail companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange over the past five years. Keyword: Altman Z-Score Model, Springate Model, Zmijewski Model, Financial Distress Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk membandingkan tingkat prediksi financial distress menggunakan tiga model, yaitu Altman Z-Score, Springate, dan Zmijewski. Fokus utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi model yang paling akurat dalam memprediksi potensi kebangkrutan pada perusahaan subsektor ritel yang memiliki karakteristik likuiditas rendah yang diukur dengan Current Ratio, profitabilitas rendah bila dilihat dari Net Profit Margin, serta tingkat solvabilitas tinggi berdasarkan Debt to Asset Ratio. Objek dalam penelitian ini mencakup perusahaan-perusahaan subsektor ritel yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama periode 2019 hingga 2023. Pemilihan sampel dilakukan melalui metode purposive sampling. Analisis data dilakukan dengan menghitung rasio-rasio keuangan dari laporan keuangan perusahaan menggunakan rumus masing-masing model, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan uji akurasi untuk mengetahui model yang paling sesuai. Hasil analisis menunjukkan perbedaan tingkat akurasi antar ketiga model. Model Altman memiliki tingkat akurasi sebesar 36,67% dan kesalahan 63,33%, model Springate memperoleh akurasi sebesar 56,67% dan kesalahan 43,33%, sedangkan model Zmijewski mencatat akurasi tertinggi sebesar 63,33% dengan tingkat kesalahan 36,67%. Berdasarkan temuan tersebut, dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan hasil prediksi antar model, dan model Zmijewski merupakan model dengan tingkat akurasi terbaik dalam memprediksi potensi financial distress pada perusahaan subsektor ritel yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama lima tahun terakhir. Kata Kunci: Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate, Model Zmijewski, Financial Distress
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Call Number CD: | FE/MJ. 25 315 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 43121010249 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate, Model Zmijewski, Financial Distress |
| Subjects: | 300 Social Science/Ilmu-ilmu Sosial > 330 Economics/Ilmu Ekonomi 300 Social Science/Ilmu-ilmu Sosial > 330 Economics/Ilmu Ekonomi > 338 Production, Industrial Economics/Produksi, Ekonomi Industri 600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Manajemen |
| Depositing User: | khalimah |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Oct 2025 01:51 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Oct 2025 01:51 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/98667 |
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