PENGARUH OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS, REPRESENTATIVENESS BIAS DAN HERDING TERHADAP PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MELALUI RISK TOLERANCE

SORAYA, RATIH (2023) PENGARUH OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS, REPRESENTATIVENESS BIAS DAN HERDING TERHADAP PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MELALUI RISK TOLERANCE. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of Overconfidence Bias on investment decision making through Risk Tolerance, the effect of Representativeness Bias on investment decision making through Risk Tolerance and the effect of Herding on investment decision making through Risk Tolerance, where there are psychological and social factors that can influence investors' investment decisions. The population of this study is stock investors in the Indonesian Capital Market at the end of Semester I of 2022, namely 4,002,289, by taking samples using the Snowball Sampling technique of 200 respondents. The researcher uses SEM PLS for data analysis method and uses the Smart PLS application as the tool. The study shows that both Overconfidence Bias and Representativeness Bias have a significant effect on investment decision making both directly and through Risk Tolerance, but Herding has no influence on investors' investment decision making either directly or through Risk Tolerance. Investors who have high selfconfidence (Overconfidence) will easily and quickly make decisions, and the existence of Risk Tolerance gives investors the ability to measure their risk tolerance so that they can reduce the negative impact of overconfidence in making decisions. Likewise in the behavior of Representativeness Bias, investors make decisions quickly and without analysis. The existence of Risk Tolerance gives individuals the ability to calculate and measure the risk they are willing to bear so that the negative impact of Representativeness Bias can be minimized. Keywords: overconfidence, representativeness, herding, risk tolerance, investment decision. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa pengaruh Overconfidence Bias terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi melalui Risk Tolerance, pengaruh Representativeness Bias terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi melalui Risk Tolerance dan pengaruh Herding terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi melalui Risk Tolerance, dimana terdapat faktor psikologis dan sosial yang dapat mempengaruhi keputusan investasi para investor. Populasi dari penelitian ini adalah investor saham di Pasar Modal Indonesia pada akhir Semester I Tahun 2022 yaitu sebesar 4.002.289, pengambilan sampel menggunakan teknik Snowball Sampling sebanyak 200 responden. Peneliti menggunakan SEM PLS untuk metode analisa data dan aplikasi Smart PLS sebagai tools-nya. Studi menunjukkan baik Overconfidence Bias maupun Representativeness Bias memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi baik secara langsung maupun melalui Risk Tolerance, namun Herding tidak memiliki pengaruh dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi para investor baik secara langsung maupun melalui Risk Tolerance. Investor yang memiliki kepercayaan diri yang tinggi (Overconfidence) akan mudah dan cepat mengambil keputusan, dan keberadaan Risk Tolerance memberikan investor kemampuan untuk mengukur toleransi risikonya sehingga dapat mengurangi dampak negatif atas percaya diri yang berlebihan dalam membuat keputusan. Begitu pula pada perilaku Representativeness Bias, investor mengambil keputusan dengan cepat dan tanpa analisa. Keberadaan Risk Tolerance memberikan individu kemampuan untuk memperhitungkan dan mengukur risiko bersedia ditanggung sehingga dampak negatif dari Representativeness Bias dapat diminimalisir. Kata Kunci: overconfidence, representativeness, herding, risk tolerance, keputusan investasi.

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