PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN DALAM MENENTUKAN PERMINTAAN MAIN TIRE PESAWAT AIRBUS 330, BOEING 777, DAN CRJ (BOMBARDIER 1000) DI PT. GMF AEROASIA, TBK

PANGGA, MUHAMAD ARYA DWI (2020) PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN DALAM MENENTUKAN PERMINTAAN MAIN TIRE PESAWAT AIRBUS 330, BOEING 777, DAN CRJ (BOMBARDIER 1000) DI PT. GMF AEROASIA, TBK. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.

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Abstract

Forecasting techniques are a way to estimate what will happen in the future systematically and pragmatically on the basis of relevant data in the past. The best forecasting process is using Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Exponential Smoothing With Trend, Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing. calculation of demand forecasting for 5 parts of Tire with several methods of forecasting requests, found that for NOSE TIRE A330, MAIN TIRE CRJ-1000, and NOSE TIRE B777 forecasting methods with the smallest error value is using the Double Exponential Smoothing method with a MAPE value of 42.47% , 22.73%, and 82.39% ... Part MAIN TIRE B777 The best forecasting method is the Exponential Smoothing With Trend method with a MAPE value of 43.2%. And in the NOSE TIRE CRJ-1000 part the best forecasting method is the Holts Double Exponential Smoothing method with a MAPE value of 50.54%. Keyword : Forecasting, Time Series, MAIN TIRE, NOSE TIRE, AIRBUS 330, BOEING 777, DAN CRJ (BOMBARDIER 1000) Teknik peramalan merupakan cara memperkirakan apa yang akan terjadi pada masa mendatang secara sistematis dan pragmatis atas dasar data yang relevan pada masa yang lalu. Proses perhitungan peramalan terbaik yaitu dengan menggunakan metode Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Exponential Smoothing With Trend, Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing, dan Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing. Perhitungan peramalan permintaan pada 5 part Tire dengan beberapa metode peramalan permintaan, didapatkan bahwa untuk part NOSE TIRE A330, MAIN TIRE CRJ-1000, dan NOSE TIRE B777 metode peramalan dengan nilai error terkecil adalah menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai MAPE 42,47%, 22,73%, dan 82,39%.. Part MAIN TIRE B777 metode peramalan terbaik adalah metode Exponential Smoothing With Trend dengan nilai MAPE 43,2%. Dan pada part NOSE TIRE CRJ-1000 metode peramalan terbaik adalah metode Holts Double Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai MAPE 50,54%. Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Time Series, MAIN TIRE, NOSE TIRE, AIRBUS 330, BOEING 777, DAN CRJ (BOMBARDIER 1000)

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