ANALISIS FORECASTING PERSEDIAAN RAW MATERIAL DAN PENENTUAN SAFETY STOCK PADA PEMBUATAN SEPATU WANITAUMKMDI BOGOR

SANI, NYIMAS FERMANIA (2022) ANALISIS FORECASTING PERSEDIAAN RAW MATERIAL DAN PENENTUAN SAFETY STOCK PADA PEMBUATAN SEPATU WANITAUMKMDI BOGOR. S1 thesis, Universitas Mecu Buana Jakarta-Menteng.

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Abstract

UMKM industri sepatu waninta harus dapat memperkiraan penjualan serta pemakaian bahan baku dimasa mendatang, dengan tujuan agar keberlangsungan produksi tetap berjalan dengan baik. UMKM NY yang berdomisili di kabupaten Bogor memiliki catatan penjualan yang fluktiatif (musiman), oleh karena itu di saat permintaan pembuatan sepatu sedang meningkat material atau bahan pembuatan sepatu harus tetap tersedia. Pengendalian persediaan di UMKM NY dilakukan peramalan dengan menggunakan metode exponential smoothing with trend .Penelitian pada UMKM NY bertujuan untuk mengetahui Raw Material yang termasuk kelompok A dan kelompok B . Raw Material yang diramalkan, hanya pada dua jenis. Forecast yang dilakukan hanya berdasarkan data deret waktu masa lampau Periode forecast kesediaan Raw Material dilakukan Agustus 2019 hingga Juli 2020 untuk data tak terkendali dan aspek selain waktu. Analisis data menggunakan forecast time series dengan metode exponential smoothing with trend pada software POM QM for windows 5.2. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan untuk Raw Material Kairo (α) = 0.43, (β) = 0.5 memiliki nilai MAPE = 19.51 %, MAD = 23.462 , MSE = 774.299; Raw Material Hammers (α) = 0.45, (β) = 0.2 memiliki nilai MAPE = 18.42 %, MAD = 22.67 , MSE = 952.72 . UMKM NY disarankan untuk menyediakan Safety Stock material Kairo sebesar 635,9 m2 dan material Hammers 648,18 m2 setiap per tiga hari. Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Forecasting , Safety Stock , Analisis ABC , Sepatu Wanita. UMKM producer women's shoes industry must be able to estimate the sales and use of Raw Materials in the future, with the aim that the continuity of production continues to run well. NY UMKM placed in Bogor district have a past record of fluctuating (seasonal) sales, therefore, when the demand for shoemaking is increasing, the materials for create shoes must be keep remain available. Inventory control in NY UMKM is forecasted using the exponential smoothing with trend method. forecasted only on two types Raw Material, Forecast that is carried out only based on past time series data. The forecast period for Raw Material availability is carried out from August 2019 to July 2020 for uncontrollable data and aspects other than time. Data analysis uses forecast time series with exponential smoothing with trend method on POM QM software for windows 5.2. Based on the calculation results for Kairo Raw Materials (α) = 0.43, (β) = 0.5 has a value of MAPE = 19.51 %, MAD = 23.462 , MSE = 774.299; Raw Material Hammers (α) = 0.45, (β) = 0.2 has a value of MAPE = 18.42 %, MAD = 22.67 , MSE = 952.72 . NY UMKKS are advised to provide Safety Stock for Cairo materials of 635.9 m2 and Hammers material of 648.18 m2 every three days. Keywords: Forecasting, Safety Stock, ABC Analysis, Women's Shoes.

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