PREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ALTMAN, SPRINGATE, OHLSON DAN ZMIJEWSKI (STUDI PADA EMITEN INDUSTRI KOMPONEN OTOMOTIF TAHUN 2014-2018)

PRATAMA, HENDRA (2020) PREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ALTMAN, SPRINGATE, OHLSON DAN ZMIJEWSKI (STUDI PADA EMITEN INDUSTRI KOMPONEN OTOMOTIF TAHUN 2014-2018). S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Bekasi.

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Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to identify and examine the condition of financial distress in the automotive component industry issuers in the period 2014 ~ 2018, using the Altman Z-score, Springate S-score, Ohlson O-score, and Zmijewski X-score against to financial ratios as an analysis form of company management to predict the early warnings of company’s bankruptcy. This study uses quantitative, secondary, and panel data; while the sample uses a non-probability boring sampling technique of 11 companies. The descriptive statistics calculation for all prediction models show the smallest value of -9.9422 goes to PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk., in 2015; and the highest value of 15.8749 goes to PT. Multi Prima Sejahtera Tbk., in 2017. The mean value for each model; Altman: 4.3842; Springate: 0.9702; Ohlson: 1.8124; and Zmijewski: 2.1724. The highest standard deviation value was obtained from the Altman’s model of 3.7754. The processing of panel data regression test and classical assumption test on each prediction model using Eviews-11 application shows that the research data has a normal distribution, and the independent variable (X) partially has an influence on the dependent variable (Y). The results showed that all four models can predict financial distress by identifying each model. The Altman’s model found 8 distress zone points, 16 grey zone points, and 31 safe zone points. The Springate’s model found 37 points in the distress zone, and 18 points in the safe zone. The Ohlson's model found 3 points in the distress zone, and 52 points in the safe zone. The Zmijewski's model found only 1 point in the distress zone. Keyword: Financial Distress, Prediction Models, Financial Ratios, Manufacturing Company. vi ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi dan menguji kondisi kesulitan keuangan pada emiten industri komponen otomotif dalam kurun waktu 2014~2018, dengan pendekatan model Altman Z-score, Springate S-score, Ohlson O-score, dan Zmijewski X-score terhadap rasio-rasio keuangan sebagai suatu bentuk analisis manajemen perusahaan untuk memprediksi tanda-tanda awal kondisi kebangkrutan perusahaan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kuantitatif, sekunder, dan data panel; sedangkan sampel menggunakan teknik sampel jenuh sebanyak 11 perusahaan. Penghitungan statistik deskriptif untuk semua model prediksi menunjukan nilai terkecil -9.9422 tertuju pada PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk., di tahun 2015; dan nilai tertinggi 15.8749 tertuju pada PT. Multi Prima Sejahtera Tbk., di tahun 2017. Nilai rata-rata untuk masing-masing model; Altman: 4.3842; Springate: 0.9702; Ohlson: 1.8124; dan Zmijewski: 2.1724. Nilai simpangan baku tertinggi diperoleh dari model Altman sebesar 3.7754. Pengolahan uji regresi data panel dan uji asumsi klasik pada setiap model prediksi menggunakan aplikasi Eviews-11 menunjukkan bahwa data penelitian mempunyai sebaran distribusi normal, dan variabel bebas (X) secara parsial mempunyai pengaruh terhadap variabel terikat (Y). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keempat model ini dapat memprediksi kesulitan keuangan dengan mengidentifikasi masing-masing model. Pada model Altman menemukan 8 titik distress zone, 16 titik grey zone, dan 31 titik safe zone. Model Springate menemukan 37 titik terkondisi distress zone, dan 18 titik terkondisi safe zone. Model Ohlson menemukan 3 titik terkondisi distress zone, dan 52 titik terkondisi safe zone. Model Zmijewski menemukan hanya 1 titik terkondisi distress zone. Kata kunci: Kesulitan Keuangan, Model Prediksi, Rasio Keuangan, Perusahaan Manufaktur

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