ANALISIS FORECASTING PERSEDIAAN RAW MATERIAL DAN PENENTUAN SAFETY STOCK DI PT. YZ BOGOR

UTOYO, ANDRI PIPIT (2020) ANALISIS FORECASTING PERSEDIAAN RAW MATERIAL DAN PENENTUAN SAFETY STOCK DI PT. YZ BOGOR. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Bekasi.

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Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze the forecasting of raw material requirements using exponential smoothing with trend methods. Furthermore, the safety stock needs for that period are sought using the safety stock formula from King. This type of research uses descriptive methods with secondary data on raw material inventory. For population data, the data set is the use of raw materials from the beginning of the YZ factory in production, while the sample data uses usage data from June 2018 to May 2019. The results obtained from ABC analysis are taken 5 raw materials that have the largest value and with forecasting the exponential smoothing with trend method gives the smallest error rate with alpha and beta values and the determination of safety stock. ABC analysis results selected 5 raw materials with the largest use of money as forecasting research material, namely raw material code P0003, P0015, P0027, P0145, and P0157. The forecasting results use the exponential smoothing with trend method and are selected with the smallest error rate for each raw material. From the results of the analysis, the safety stock that must be available for each raw material depends on the size of the variable forming the formula, namely: service level, standard deviation, lead time, and time increment. Keywords: ABC Analysis, Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Safety Stock. http://digilib.mercubuana.ac.id/ v ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perencanaan kebutuhan raw material menggunakan forecasting metode exponential smoothing with trend. Selanjutnya dicari kebutuhan safety stock pada periode tersebut menggunakan rumus safety stock dari King. Jenis penelitian menggunakan metode deskriptif dengan data sekunder persediaan raw material. Untuk populasi data yakni kumpulan data penggunaan raw material dari mulai awal pabrik YZ berproduksi, sedangkan sampel data menggunakan data penggunaan dari Juni 2018-Mei 2019. Hasil yang diperoleh analisis ABC diambil 5 raw material yang memiliki nilai terbesar dan dengan peramalan metode exponential smoothing with trend memberikan tingkat error terkecil dengan nilai alfa dan beta serta penentuan safety stock. Hasil analisis ABC terpilih 5 raw material dengan penggunaan uang terbesar sebagai bahan penelitian forecasting, yaitu raw material kode P0003, P0015, P0027, P0145, dan P0157. Hasil forecasting menggunakan metode exponential smoothing with trend hasil peramalan dan dipilih dengan tingkat error terkecil untuk tiap raw material-nya. Dari hasil analisa, safety stock yang harus ada untuk setiap raw material tergantung pada besar kecilnya nilai variabel pembentuk formula yaitu: service level, standar deviasi, lead time, dan time increment. Kata Kunci: Analisis ABC, Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Safety Stock.

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