Yuniar, Ahlan (2018) ANALISA KEUNTUNGAN DENGAN PENGENDALIAN SEDIAAN ROTI FIRE FLOSH MENGGUNAKAN METODE FORECASTING PADA PERUSAHAAN BAKERY X DI BEKASI. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana.
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Abstract
ABSTRAK Penerapan pengendalian sediaan ini diperlukan karena roti termasuk dalam kategori perishable product yang mudah rusak sehingga mempunyai jangka waktu atau masa jual yang pendek tujuannya adalah untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan pemilik toko roti agar didapatkan sediaan yang optimal dan kuantitas produksi yang optimal pada produk Fire Flosh. Penerapan pengendalian sediaan ini diperlukan karena toko roti tidak mendapatkan keuntungan yang maksimal jika produksinya berlebih, bahkan dapat mengalami kerugian jika tidak akurat dalam menentukan jumlah permintaan. Melihat permasalahan diatas maka dalam menanggulangi masalah persedian itu peneliti akan menggunakan metode peramalan time series yaitu metode peramalan secara kuantitatif dengan menggunakan waktu sebagai dasar peramalan. Data yang akan digunakan merupakan data histori dari proses usaha khususnya pada produk fire flosh. Dalam penelitian tugas akhir ini, menggunakan empat metode peramalan, yaitu Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing dan Winter Model. Dari empat metode peramalan ini akan dipilih satu metode yang memiliki nilai forecast error terkecil berdasarkan indikator performa yaitu, MAD, MSE, dan MAPE. Hasil perhitungan diatas adalah metode peramalan winter model merupakan metode yang paling cocok digunakan pada proses pengendalian persedian roti fire flosh di Bakery X dengan nilai forecast error sebesar MSE = 2501,39, MAD = 39,60, dan MAPE= 0,114. Hasil forecast pada metode winter model akan digunakan sebagi analisa keutungan maksimum roti fire flosh. Kesimpulannya adalah bahwa metode yang cocok digunakan pada data penjulan roti fire flosh adalah metode peramalan winter model, dari hasil permalan menggunkan metode winter model dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui keuntungan maksimum pada periode selanjutnya dan perkiraan besar profit yang diperoleh perusahaan dari penjulan roti fire flosh diperiode selanjutnya adalah Rp. 33.152.450,- Kata Kunci : Persediaan, Forecast, Metode Time Series, Profit. ABSTRACT The application of supply control is needed because bread is included in the perishable product category which is easily damaged so that it has a short period of time or selling period the purpose is to support the decision of bakery owners to obtain optimal preparation and optimal production quantity in Fire Flosh products. The application of supply control is needed because the bakery does not get the maximum profit if the production is excessive, it can even suffer losses if it is not accurate in determining the number of requests. Looking at the above problems, in overcoming the supply problem, researchers will use time series forecasting methods, namely forecasting methods quantitatively by using time as a basis for forecasting. The data that will be used is historical data from the business process, especially on fire flosh products. In this final project research, using four forecasting methods, namely Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Winter Model. Of the four forecasting methods, one method will be chosen which has the smallest forecast error value based on performance indicators, namely, MAD, MSE, and MAPE. The calculation results above are the winter model forecasting method which is the most suitable method used in the process of controlling fire flosh bread in Bakery X with the forecast error value of MSE = 2501.39, MAD = 39.60, and MAPE = 0.114. The forecast results on the winter model method will be used as an analysis of the maximum profit of fire flosh bread. The conclusion is that the method that is suitable to use in the data of fire flosh bread sales is the winter model forecasting method, from the results of using the winter model method can be used to find out the maximum profit in the next period and the estimated large profit obtained from the sale of fire flosh bread in the next period Rp. 33,152,450, - Keywords: Inventory, Forecast, Time Series Method, Profit.
| Item Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Call Number CD: | FT/IND 18 009 |
| NIM/NIDN Creators: | 41614310063 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Kata Kunci : Persediaan, Forecast, Metode Time Series, Profit. |
| Subjects: | 700 Arts/Seni, Seni Rupa, Kesenian > 750 Painting and Paintings/Seni Lukis dan Lukisan > 758 Other Subjects/Subjel Lainnya > 758.6 Industrial and Technical Subjects/Subjek Industri dan Teknik |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Industri |
| Depositing User: | siti maisyaroh |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Jul 2022 17:21 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Jul 2022 17:21 |
| URI: | http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/65234 |
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