ANALISIS ESTIMASI POTENSI HILANGNYA PENERIMAAN PAJAK NEGARA AKIBAT UNDERGROUND ECONOMY (Dengan Pendekatan Moneter Permintaan Uang Kartal) (Periode 2010-2019)

NASUTION, ALISHA PUTRI (2021) ANALISIS ESTIMASI POTENSI HILANGNYA PENERIMAAN PAJAK NEGARA AKIBAT UNDERGROUND ECONOMY (Dengan Pendekatan Moneter Permintaan Uang Kartal) (Periode 2010-2019). S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta-Menteng.

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Abstract

Adanya kegiatan underground economy di Indonesia, diperkirakan berpengaruh besar terhadap perkembangan ekonomi di Indonesia. Salah satunya adalah penerimaan pajak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui besaran underground economy dan besarnya potensi pajak yang hilang akibat dari aktivitas underground economy pada periode 2010-2019. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis data kuantitatif atau statistik deskriptif dengan pendekatan moneter untuk permintaan uang kartal yang dipengaruhi oleh variabel inflasi, opportunity cost, PDB, dan beban pajak negara. Data penelitian ini adalah sekunder, berbentuk runtut waktu triwulan yang diperoleh dari publikasi kementerian keuangan dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa besarnya underground economy rata-rata di Indonesia yaitu sebesar Rp 116,8 triliun dalam periode 2010-2019 dan rata- rata rasio terhadap PDB sebesar 1,31%. Potensi hilangnya penerimaan pajak yang diperhitungkan atas aktivitas underground economy yaitu dengan rata – rata sebesar Rp 15,6 triliun atau rasio terhadap PDB sebesar 0,17%. Kata Kunci: Potensial loss pajak, Underground Economy, Permintaan Uang Kartal The existence of underground economic activities in Indonesia is estimated to have a major influence on economic development in Indonesia. One of which is tax revenue. This study aims to determine the magnitude of the underground economy and the amount of potential lost taxes due to underground economic activities in the 2010-2019 period. This study uses quantitative data analysis methods or descriptive statistics with a monetary approach to the demand for currency which is influenced by the variables of inflation, opportunity costs, GDP, and the state tax burden. This research data is secondary, in the form of a quarterly time series obtained from the publications of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The results of this study indicate that the average underground economy in Indonesia is IDR 116,8 trillion in the 2010-2019 period and the average ratio to GDP is 1.31%. The potential loss of tax revenue that is calculated for the underground economy activities is an average of IDR 15,6 trillion or a ratio to GDP of 0.17%. Keywords: Potential tax loss, Underground Economy, Currency Demand

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