GUSTIANSYAH, HASDA (2020) FORECASTING PEMELIHARAAN MINYAK MAIN TRANSFORMATOR STEAM TURBINE DENGAN FUZZY TIME SERIES PT. INDONESIA POWER OMU PLTGU CILEGON. S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
Failure of isolation in the transformer system is one of the most common types of failures in the electrical world. Isolation failure is often caused by diminished dielectric ability of isolation as a protective and cooling the winding of thermal stress and electrical stress. At PT Indonesia Power OMU PLTGU Cilegon There was a short circuit between the main transformer steam turbine in 2012 which resulted in a profit loss in the company. Analysis made using the Fuzzy time series method to calculate the oil maintenance strategy of transformer steam turbine in the future. As a reference forecasting used the content of ethane gas that can be from the measurement dissolved gas analysis (DGA). In forecasting results testing used MAPE testing to determine the accuracy level of the data processing analysis. Based on the results of the study obtained the conclusion that the forecasting results for maintenance is every 11 months with an error rate of fuzzy time series of 10.59%. Keywords : Insulation, Oil transformer, Dissolved Gas Analysis, Gas Ethane, Fuzzy Time Series, MAPE Testing Kegagalan isolasi dalam sistem transformator merupakan salah satu jenis kegagalan yang sering terjadi di dunia kelistrikan. Kegagalan isolasi sering disebabkan oleh berkurangnya kemampuan dielektrik isolasi sebagai pelindung dan pendingin belitan utama dari thermal stress dan electrical stress. Di PT Indonesia Power OMU PLTGU Cilegon pernah terjadi peristiwa short circuit antar belitan main transformator steam turbine pada tahun 2012 yang mengakibatkan perusahaan mengalami kerugian secara materil. Analisa yang dibuat menggunakan metode fuzzy time series untuk memerkirakan strategi pemeliharaan minyak main transformator steam turbine di masa mendatang. Sebagai referensi forecasting digunakan kandungan gas ethane yang di dapat dari pengukuran dissolved gas analysis (DGA). Dalam pengujian hasil forecasting digunakan MAPE testing untuk mengetahui tingkat akurasi dari analisa pengolahan data. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa hasil forecasting untuk dilakukan pemeliharaan adalah setiap 11 bulan dengan tingkat kesalahan fuzzy time series sebesar 10,59%. Kata Kunci : Isolasi, Minyak Transformator, Dissolved Gas Analysis, Gas Ethane, Fuzzy Time Series, MAPE Testing
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