Alternatif Model Prediksi Kebangkrytan Pada Emiten Yang Delisted Di BEI 2004-208

Jusdian, Rudy (2010) Alternatif Model Prediksi Kebangkrytan Pada Emiten Yang Delisted Di BEI 2004-208. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta - Menteng.

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Abstract

This research is to find out alternative bankruptcy prediction model who is suitable for current condition. There are three famous bankruptcy predictors The Zmijewski Model, The Altman Model, and The Springate Model, but maybe is not suitable for current condition. Sample for this research were taken 14 delisted companies and 14 non delisted companies in the same category from Jakarta Stock Exchange for year 2004 – 2008 except banks. The research utilize ratios from Zmijewski, Springate and Altman model as a independent variable and uses discriminant analysis to find suitable alternative model for bankruptcy prediction. The result show that the Zmijewski, Springate and Altman model (original) could predict bankruptcy with accuracy 41%,, 71% and 75%, whereas the alternative bankruptcy model which a uses ratio of Zmijewski, Springate and Altman model could predict classification of bankruptcy better than the original model with accuracy 69,6%, 83,9%, and 80,4%. The best predictor is the alternative bankruptcy model Springate.Penelitian ini adalah untuk mencari alternatif model prediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan yang sesuai dengan kondisi saat ini. Terdapat tiga model prediksi yang sudah sering digunakan untuk memprediksi probabilitas bangkrut dan tidaknya suatu perusahaan yaitu model Zmijewski, Springate dan Altman. Obyek penelitian diambil dari BEI tahun 2004–2008, yaitu merupakan 14 perusahaan non bank yang sudah delisted, (dihapus/dikeluarkan) dan 14 perusahaan masih aktif sejenis sebagai pembanding. Penelitian menggunakan rasio–rasio yang terdapat pada tiga model Zmijewski, Springate dan Altman sebagai variabel bebas dan untuk mencari alternatif model prediksi kebangkrutan dengan menggunakan analisa diskriminan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ketiga model original yaitu model Zmijewski, Springate dan Altman mampu memprediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan dengan akurasi 41%, 71% dan 75%. Sedangkan Altenatif model prediksi baru yang menggunakan rasio-rsaio model Zmijewski, Springate dan Altman mempunyai kemampuan yang lebih baik sebagai prediktor kebangkrutan dengan akurasi pengklasifikasian 69,6%, 83,9% dan 80,4%. Alternatf model prediksi terbaik adalah alternatif model Springate.

Item Type: Thesis (S2)
Call Number CD: CDT-551-10-161
NIM/NIDN Creators: 55108110195
Uncontrolled Keywords: MKU, MANAJAEMEN KEUANGAN
Subjects: 600 Technology/Teknologi > 650 Management, Public Relations, Business and Auxiliary Service/Manajemen, Hubungan Masyarakat, Bisnis dan Ilmu yang Berkaitan > 658 General Management/Manajemen Umum
Divisions: Pascasarjana > Magister Manajemen
Depositing User: Admin Perpus UMB
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2011 14:06
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2023 07:44
URI: http://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/id/eprint/38291

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