NURFAUZIAH, MUSTIKA (2026) PENGARUH LIKUIDITAS DAN LEVERAGE TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DENGAN PROFITABILITAS SEBAGAI VARIABEL INTERVENING (Studi Pada Sektor Makanan dan Minuman yang Tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia). S1 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta.
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Abstract
The stock returns of Food and Beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange showed a declining trend throughout 2019-2024, even though the sector continued to record an increasing contribution to national Gross Domestic Product according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. This gap became the motivation for the present study, which aims to analyze the effect of Liquidity and Leverage on Stock Returns with Profitability as an Intervening Variable (Study on the Food and Beverage Sector Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019- 2024 period). The population in this study consists of food and beverage sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, totaling 21 companies. Sample selection used a purposive sampling method and obtained 6 companies that met the criteria, yielding six years of panel observations. The data analysis method used is panel data regression analysis. The results show that Liquidity (Current Ratio) has no effect on Profitability (Return on Assets), while Leverage (Debt to Equity Ratio) has a negative and significant effect on Profitability. Furthermore, Liquidity has a negative and significant effect on Stock Returns, Leverage has no effect on Stock Returns, while Profitability has a positive and significant effect on Stock Returns. The path analysis results indicate that Profitability does not mediate the effect of Liquidity on Stock Returns, but Profitability does mediate the negative and significant effect of Leverage on Stock Returns. These findings suggest that efficient capital structure management and improved profitability are factors that investors weigh more heavily than a company's liquidity level alone when determining stock returns in the food and beverage sector. Keywords: Liquidity, Leverage, Profitability, Stock Returns. Return saham perusahaan sektor Makanan dan Minuman yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia menunjukkan tren yang cenderung menurun sepanjang tahun 2019- 2024, meskipun sektor ini terus mencatatkan kontribusi yang meningkat terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto nasional menurut Badan Pusat Statistik. Fenomena kesenjangan tersebut mendasari penelitian ini, yang bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Likuiditas dan Leverage terhadap Return Saham dengan Profitabilitas sebagai Variabel Intervening (Studi pada Sektor Makanan dan Minuman yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2019-2024). Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah perusahaan sub-sektor makanan dan minuman yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia, berjumlah 21 perusahaan. Pemilihan sampel menggunakan metode purposive sampling dan diperoleh 6 perusahaan yang memenuhi kriteria, sehingga total data observasi selama enam tahun. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Likuiditas (Current Ratio) tidak berpengaruh terhadap Profitabilitas (Return on Assets), sedangkan Leverage (Debt to Equity Ratio) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Profitabilitas. Selanjutnya, Likuiditas berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Return Saham, Leverage tidak berpengaruh terhadap Return Saham, sementara Profitabilitas berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Return Saham. Hasil analisis jalur menunjukkan bahwa Profitabilitas tidak memediasi pengaruh Likuiditas terhadap Return Saham, namun Profitabilitas terbukti memediasi pengaruh negatif dan signifikan Leverage terhadap Return Saham. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa pengelolaan struktur modal yang efisien serta peningkatan profitabilitas menjadi faktor kunci yang lebih diperhitungkan investor dibandingkan sekadar tingkat likuiditas perusahaan dalam menentukan return saham pada sektor makanan dan minuman. Kata kunci: Likuiditas, Leverage, Profitabilitas, Return Saham
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