PENGEMBANGAN MODEL COLLABORATIVE PLANNING FORECASTING AND REPLENISHMENT (CPFR) BERDASAR EVALUASI INVENTORY DALAM SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT PADA PEMASARAN MI INSTAN PRODUK INDOFOOD DI PASAR INGGRIS

indrawan, Iwan (2008) PENGEMBANGAN MODEL COLLABORATIVE PLANNING FORECASTING AND REPLENISHMENT (CPFR) BERDASAR EVALUASI INVENTORY DALAM SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT PADA PEMASARAN MI INSTAN PRODUK INDOFOOD DI PASAR INGGRIS. S2 thesis, Universitas Mercu Buana Jakarta-Menteng.

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Abstract

”Forecasting” became the important part that was not separated in each operation of a business. The company felt many benefits from planning that have been structured, both from the aspect of financial and the quality of the work was the same as the other side. Got the estimation of the figure of product supplies that was relatively exact from the factory to the distribution channel was very important because really will help the company to control the level inventory in the distribution route and reduced the potential lost the opportunity sold. This situation could be achieved by carrying out planning in an integrated manner inter-member supply chain in the production forecast that is International Operation Division PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur, Tbk and the distributor. In the practice that happened at this time, sales forecasting that was carried out more often relied on the colleague's intuition of the sale part and what could be read by them from the past data. The simulation and the testing were topsy- turvy that was carried out in this research showed that forecasting that was made be based on consumption will have a big opportunity increased the accuracy forecast and reduced bullwhip effect because of the level reduction of the uncertainty. One of the elements of the key in forecasting was the method election forecasting and the occurrence of the exchange of information between the members supply chain. Around several forecast methods, the Holt model apparently most was suitable for the Indomie product for the United Kingdom market that showed the behavior trend without the seasonal pattern. The combination between forecasting that was based on consumption, the control inventory both to the distributor and trader as well as the CPFR implementation (Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment) in the forecasting mechanism will improve the achievement supply chain on the whole that is bullwhip effect that was lower, inventory the total that was lower all along the distribution route as well as the accuracy forecast that was better that had an impact on the achievement of the company on the whole. Key words: inventory, demand forecast, bullwhip effect, supply chain, sales to traders, sales to distributor, CPFR “Forecasting” menjadi bagian penting yang tidak terpisahkan dalam setiap operasi suatu bisnis. Perusahaan telah merasakan banyak manfaat dari perencanaan yang terstruktur, baik dari segi finansial maupun kualitas kerja sama dengan pihak lain. Mendapatkan estimasi angka pasokan produk yang relatif tepat dari pabrik ke saluran distribusi sangat penting karena akan sangat membantu perusahaan mengendalikan tingkat inventory di jalur distribusi dan memperkecil potensi kehilangan kesempatan menjual. Keadaan ini dapat dicapai dengan melakukan perencanaan secara terintegrasi antar anggota supply chain dalam pembuatan forecast yaitu International Operation Division PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur, Tbk dan distributor. Pada praktek yang terjadi saat ini, sales forecasting yang dilakukan lebih banyak mengandalkan intuisi kolega bagian penjualan dan apa yang dapat mereka baca dari data lampau. Simulasi dan pengujian terbalik yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa forecasting yang dibuat berdasarkan konsumsi akan berpeluang besar meningkatkan akurasi forecast dan mengurangi bullwhip effect karena berkurangnya tingkat ketidakpastian. Salah satu elemen kunci dalam forecasting adalah pemilihan metoda forecasting dan terjadinya pertukaran informasi antar para anggota supply chain. Diantara beberapa metoda forecast, model Holt tampaknya paling cocok untuk produk Indomie untuk pasar United Kingdom yang menunjukkan perilaku trend tanpa pola musiman. Kombinasi antara forecasting yang didasarkan atas konsumsi, pengendalian inventory baik pada distributor maupun trader serta implementasi CPFR (Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment) dalam mekanisme forecasting akan memperbaiki kinerja supply chain secara keseluruhan yaitu bullwhip effect yang lebih rendah, inventory total yang lebih rendah di sepanjang jalur distribusi serta akurasi forecast yang lebih baik yang berdampak pada kinerja perusahaan secara keseluruhan. Kata kunci: inventory, demand forecast, bullwhip effect, supply chain, sales to traders, sales to distributor, CPFR.

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